Analysis, Trends, and Outlook for 2025
The Italian design and furniture industry concluded 2024 with a turnover of €51.6 billion, reflecting a 3.1% decrease compared to the €53.2 billion recorded the previous year (Federlegno data).
Although this decline marks a contraction from 2023, it was not unexpected. Despite significant global economic challenges, the industry demonstrated remarkable resilience, effectively navigating geopolitical complexities and the broader economic situation.
Even with the decrease in figures, the sector continues to be a global benchmark for quality, innovation, and design.
A Sector in Transition: Domestic Market and Exports
Sales in the domestic market contracted by 3.5%, falling to €32.2 billion, representing over 60% of the industry’s total turnover.
The reduction in tax incentives, which had previously supported growth, was one of the main factors contributing to this decline. However, industrial production in the sector managed to remain relatively stable compared to the past, especially in the second half of the year. This positive signal highlights the sector’s ability to respond to difficulties, staying competitive in the market.
Exports, although down, remained a significant factor for the sector. With a 2.3% decline, Italian exports totaled €19.4 billion, accounting for 38% of the overall turnover. Italian companies continue to regard exports as a vital growth lever, reflecting the importance of a diversified global market.
Specifically, 2024 saw a decline in exports to some traditional markets.
France, the top destination market, saw a drop of 3.6%, yet it remains the primary partner for Italian furniture and design, with a value of €1.96 billion.
Germany, the third-largest market, experienced a similar decline (-3.6%), while the UK saw a more significant drop of -7.9%. These results underline a more challenging environment in traditional markets, necessitating the exploration of new opportunities in alternative regions.
New Horizons: The Rise of Emerging Markets
While Europe showed signs of difficulty, emerging countries have been driving the growth of Italian exports. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia saw significant increases in imports of Italian furniture and design, with growth rates of 21.6% and 22.8%, respectively.
These countries, which have long been pursuing urbanization and modernization, are becoming increasingly strategic markets for the sector. The UAE, in particular, has risen in the rankings of top destinations, reaching a value of €317.6 million, showing a growth trend that could strengthen in the coming years.
The Chinese market, despite some challenges, continues to present a key opportunity, as Italy remains the leading European supplier. However, exports to China experienced a significant decline of -17.9%, totaling €313.5 million. This drop was driven by a slowdown in domestic demand in China and global economic difficulties, yet China remains a crucial market, especially if Italian companies can maintain a competitive position in the high-end market.
Industry Outlook: The Future of the Sector in 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, the forecast for the Italian design and furniture sector remains cautiously optimistic. While growth is not anticipated in the first months of 2025, the second half of the year may witness a recovery, primarily driven by an upturn in exports and a stabilization of the economic situation.
Sustainability, which is increasingly central to consumer decisions, along with the ongoing drive for innovation, will be key factors guiding the sector into the future.
A key issue for the coming year will be the potential introduction of tariffs by the United States, which could significantly impact Italian exports. Although the U.S. market recorded a 2% growth, it remains highly vulnerable to these trade dynamics.
In the event of tariffs, Italian companies may face increased competition, particularly from China, which could expand its presence in Europe. The risk of unfair competition is real, given that European sustainability and safety regulations are much stricter than those in other countries.
To face these challenges, Italian businesses will need to focus on alternative markets and further diversify their offerings. Asia represents a region with great potential, especially with growing demand for high-quality, innovative design products.
Furthermore, adopting digital strategies and transitioning towards more sustainable business models will be crucial to remaining competitive in an increasingly challenging global landscape.
A Sector Ready to Innovate
2024 marked an adaptation period for the sector, which has responded to challenges with an increasing focus on sustainability, technological innovation, and product quality.
Despite the difficulties, Italian design remains a global symbol of excellence, appreciated for its ability to combine aesthetics, functionality, and environmental responsibility.
For 2025, the strategy will be to approach difficulties with flexibility, prepared to adapt to market changes. Italian companies will continue to focus on quality and innovation while preserving the intrinsic value of “Made in Italy,” which remains a hallmark of global quality and sophistication.
The furniture and design sector will therefore meet at the 2025 Salone del Mobile for a new opportunity for growth and innovation. Despite the economic and geopolitical difficulties of 2024, with a decrease in exports and a contracting domestic market, the industry remains optimistic.
2024 Market Overview – Wood-Furniture Sector
- Total Turnover of the Wood-Furniture Supply Chain: The production turnover reached €51.6 billion, a 3.1% decline compared to 2023, which had totaled €53.2 billion. This marks the continuation of the sector’s normalization after the extraordinary growth of the previous two years.
- Domestic Market: Sales in the domestic market reached €32.2 billion, showing a 3.5% decrease. This is mainly due to the reduction in fiscal incentives that had boosted the market in previous years.
- Export: Exports reached €19.4 billion, down by 2.3%. Despite the decline, exports still represent 38% of the total turnover of the supply chain, indicating the sector’s resilience in international markets.
- Commercial Balance: The commercial balance of the sector was €8 billion, down from €8.4 billion in 2023, but still positive.
Wood Sector Performance
- Wood Sector Turnover: The wood sector saw a 5.6% decrease in 2024, with turnover totaling €20.5 billion. This contraction was mainly influenced by a 6.5% drop in domestic market sales, which account for over 75% of the total turnover.
- Main Export Markets:
- France: The leading market but down by 3.6% (€1.96 billion).
- China: A sharp decline of 17.9% (€313.5 million).
- Germany: A drop of 3.6% (€1.1 billion).
- United States: Growth of 9.6% (€366 million).
- United Arab Emirates: Significant growth of 21.6% (€317.6 million).
- Saudi Arabia: Increase of 22.8% (€193.5 million).
(Data from Federlegno Milano, February 4, 2025)
